Tina Charles and Nneka Ogwumike Are Making a Case for MVP
- By Shorty
- Aug 25, 2016
- 4 min read
With the second half of the WNBA season set to return this Friday, it is never too early to discuss who is in the running for MVP. As of now there are five candidates who have a real shot at the title, but so far only two have really separated themselves from the pack - that being Tina Charles and Nneka Ogwumike. Tina Charles ranks number one in points and rebounds averaging 21.4 PPG and 9.6 RPG. Nneka Ogwumike ranks third in points and rebounds averaging 19.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG while shooting 71% from the field. Let's take a closer look at the numbers and analyze how both players stack up against each other.
When comparing the stats of these two players, Charles is leading in the first three categories, but Ogwumike isn't too far behind. When looking at FG%, 3P%, and FT% Nneka is leading the way, although I will say the 3P% is a little misleading. While Ogwumike nor Charles is known for being consistent three-point shooters, so far Nneka has made 9 of 13 3P attempts shooting at 69%. Tina has made 10 of 32 3P attempts shooting at 31%. If we want to go deeper into the analytical data then let's take a closer look into the Advance Stats.
When looking at the Total Possessions for both players, it is no surprise that Charles would have the most possessions considering she is the number one option for the New York Liberty. This category also correlates with the USG% with Charles having the highest percentage on the New York Liberty at 30.4%. What is so amazing for Nneka is that she is shooting at 71% on 205 less possessions than Charles, while carrying a higher Reb% at 19.3. The EFG% and TS% are just out of this world at 72.8% and 76.9% for Ogwumike. We see Nneka leading by 10.6 in OffRtg and Charles being ahead in DefRtg with just 1.4 separating the two. To conclude our analysis, Nneka has a huge advantage in overall NetRtg while Tina is dominating in the Ast/To category.
Who will be named MVP?
[For Tina Charles]
At this point it is too close to tell just by looking at the numbers, so we will try to look at the possible outcome from the voting committee's perspective. Tina Charles is having one of her best season's to date and is on pace to become just the third player in WNBA history to lead in points and rebounds in the same season. Statistically, she is putting up even larger numbers than in 2012 when she won her first MVP trophy averaging 18 PPG and 10.5 RPG while shooting 49.9% from the field.
The reason she might not win MVP will have to do with a number of factors including a possible drop off of production. Charles along with Team USA have completed another dominating performance in Rio earning a Gold Medal in the 2016 Olympic games. So the question for Charles is, can she continue to produce the same numbers as she did in the first half? Tina averaged 19.1 MPG during the Olympic games in addition to averaging 33.6 MPG for the New York Liberty. If she can sustain her averages in PPG and RPG during the second half then she will be the top choice for MVP, but if she eventually has a drop off due to fatigue then at most she will finish second in MVP voting.
[For Nneka Ogwumike]
Nneka Ogwumike is also having one of her best career season's so far posting a league leading 71% FG%. If she can keep this up for the Los Angeles Sparks remaining ten games, she will go on to have the best FG% in WNBA history beating Tamika Raymond's record for FG% at 67% in 2003. Like Charles, Ogwumile is also leading her team in PPG and RPG while emerging as the number one option for the LA Sparks. In the month of July, Ogwumike set a record for 23 straight made field goals in a stretch of three games.
The reason why she might not win MVP is a bit more complex than the reasoning for Charles and it will have much to do with a teammate of Nneka's who is also a 2x MVP winner - by the name of Candace Parker. Even though Parker isn't putting up her best career numbers due to the emergence of Ogwumike, she is still second among the team in PPG and RPG averaging 16.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and leading the team in assist dropping 5.1 APG (ranks second in the WNBA). Parker is also shooting a career-best 40.1% from 3P% and the reason why Nneka's USG% is only at 21.8% is because Parker has a higher usage rate of 26.9%. The question for Ogwumike is, will she have to share votes with Parker? Will the committee still view Parker as the primary option and think that Nneka is only benefiting because of it?
Those are just some of the few questions the voting committee will have to ask themselves when deciding if Ogwumike is their top candidate for MVP. If both teammates end up sharing votes, which would pretty much cancel out each other. Ogwumike could possibly find herself finishing second or third in MVP voting.
Conclusion
Tina Charles and Nneka Ogwumike have been two of the best players so far in the WNBA's 20th season and both are making a strong case for the MVP title. Only time will tell which one will come out victorious, but as a side note - I did say there were a total five players in the running for MVP. The three other candidates are Maya Moore, Candace Parker, and Elena Delle Donne who could also make a strong second half push to challenge Nneka and Tina for the title.
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